Ashes 2017/18 - Gabba Day 3 and 4 - Australian Victory All But Guaranteed

Firstly, please accept my apologies for this amalgamated review of Days 3 and 4. I play cricket on a Saturday which makes it a bit more difficult to get a timely review of the day's play so combining the two days play seems like a better idea.

With the game so evenly poised after Day 2, the pendulum started to take its first prolonged lean late on Day 3. Shaun Marsh passed 50 as expected but departed soon after to a very tame push to mid-off. Still trailing by 127 when Marsh was dismissed England had the chance to really turn the screw. Tim Paine (13) and Mitchell Starc (6) soon followed but the tourists perhaps underestimated Pat Cummins' ability with the bat while Steve Smith continued on his merry way towards yet another hundred.

Australia got themselves a 26 run lead with Smith's sublime unbeaten 141, no obvious weakness in his unorthodox technique. Before England managed to get the scores level Alastair Cook was superbly caught at fine leg, perhaps a little unlucky because it wasn't a mis-timed hook. If anything he got it too well. James Vince also departed before the close of Day 3, England finishing with a lead of 7 with only 8 wickets in hand. Joe Root held the hopes of his country going into Day 4...

Sunday belonged to Australia. Of that, there is no doubt. Stoneman was the first to be dismissed as Nathan Lyon found the edge and Steve Smith held on to a very good slip catch. Dawid Malan went in almost identical fashion, and the relative experience in the English batting line up of Joe Root and Moeen Ali would go on to define England's chances. Root brought up his fifty but was trapped lbw very next ball for the second time in the match, and the familiar feeling of an imminent England collapse began to come to the fore, but with Moeen Ali still at the crease alongside Jonny Bairstow, this really was the last hope for the visitors.

Alas, the Lions were tamed. Root's 51, Ali's 40 and Bairstow's 42 were all eclipsed by Smith's 141 not out the day before, the Australian captain's ability to not only convert the score but go on with it have fundamentally put Australia on the verge of another victory at The Gabbatoir. Chasing a total of just 170, England will know that once again they have fallen short of the standard required to put Australia under pressure on home soil. A target of 220-250 was the goal, had they achieved such it will be forever unknown how this Ashes opener would have evolved, having been so even for the best part of three days.

David Warner (60*) and Cameron Bancroft (51*) have seen Australia safely to the close without even a half chance, on 114 without loss; 56 paltry runs away from a 1-0 lead. There was an interesting passage of play when Bancroft played a ball back to James Anderson, whose attempted throw at the stumps hit Bancroft just to the side of a part of the anatomy that would have made most men crumble just watching, let alone experiencing. Bancroft was unmoved, Anderson only symbolically apologetic. It was this moment that perhaps sums up this match; No matter what England throw Australia's way they will stand up to it without flinching, and stare down any attempt to target any vulnerability.

The manner of the expected Australian victory in Brisbane breeds confidence in the ranks of Baggy Greens, yet this series still appears to be very closely matched. It will be interesting to see which way England will go with selections, Australia's selectors will feel justified in theirs. Come tomorrow, I hope to see England take a few wickets, go down fighting and start afresh in South Australia. Surely Australia can't lose 10 wickets for 50 runs can they...? The weather forecast contains rain, but not enough to lose a whole day's play so an Australian victory is almost as certain as Donald Trump causing a controversy.

Many will wonder about the logic of my series prediction considering England's capitulation on Day 4, and how exactly England will react in Adelaide next week. No team has come from behind to win an Ashes series since 2005 in England, yet I still feel that England can win The Ashes. Adelaide is a day/night game at a ground that will offer sideways movement for two of the worlds leading exponents of such conditions; James Anderson and Stuart Broad. Adelaide and Brisbane are almost chalk and cheese; the pace and bounce of The Gabba hardly likely to transfer to the City of Churches. The Barmy Army are almost certainly already saying their prayers.